Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship. Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of 781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis. Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. He had an earlier than expected exit from Big Dog’s Backyard Ultra last weekend – which gives him time to complete the women’s preview which we will also share! Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the MEN’S INDIVIDUAL COMPETITION:
The men’s individual race will be a sight to behold as you have Lithuania’s Alexandr “if you ain’t first your last” Sorokin squaring off with Spain’s rising superstar Ivan “I’m not Terrible” Penalba Lopez. Both runners have recent 272+ km 24-hour performances and are capable of even greater numbers.
Sorokin is easily the most exciting 24-hour male ultrarunner performing today. His aggressive, in your face, running style is designed to either win the gold brilliantly or implode. He is not afraid to fail which makes him especially dangerous and unpredictable. Oh, did I mention he has 6:50 100km leg speed? At the 2016 European 24-hour World Championship (coincidentally which was held on the same course in Albi), Sorokin rocketed to an 18 km lead over his before giving it all back over the last three hours, on his way to a 6th place finish (251.61 km). To put things in perspective, his 12-hour split was 153.70 km/95.50 miles or 191 mile 24-hour pace.
In last year’s 2018 European 24-hour Championship in Romania, Sorokin finished 3rd, 5 km behind the winner, aforementioned Andre Radzikowski. To given you further insight into Sorokin’s attacking running style, he was an hour and a half ahead of Radazikowski at the 100-mile split (12:50 vs. 14:19).
In 2017, Sorokin won the Spartathlon with a brilliant 22:04, which is the second-best time in Spartathlon history, behind only the legendary Golden Greek himself, Yiannis Kouros.
Earlier this year he won the Sri Chinmoy 24 hour in Switzerland with 272.70 km and was at 150/93 miles km at the 12-hour mark. I fully expect Sorokin to be far ahead of the field at the halfway point. What’s the saying about the Zebra and her stripes or is it the Leopard and his spots? Whether he can hang on and win his first 24 hour World Championship is the question.
Sorokin will be tested though by 28–year-old phenom Ivan “I’m not Terrible” Penalba Lopez of Spain, an intriguing storyline in his own right, and legitimate threat to win the gold in Albi. Lopez can match Sorokin in raw leg speed as evidenced by his 6:58 100k earlier this year. He also has the second and third best 12-hour marks in the World this year-both 155-kilometer efforts, behind only Zach Bitter’s 168 km World Record achieved at the Six Days in the Dome-the Redux.
Since he began running ultras three years ago, Ivan has won 24 of the 25 ultras he has entered. His lone defeat was coincidentally at the 2017 24-hour World Championship in Belfast, where he finished 120th overall with a paltry 204.97 km. Since then, he has won 21 straight races including three 24-hour races with the following respective distances 249.32, 273.67 and 258.89 (Soochow Invitational). At Soochow, Lopez pasted last year’s 24-hour gold medalist Yoshihiko Ishikawa, and two other of Japan’s feared runners: Takahashi and Naraki. For comparison sake, at Soochow 100-mile split, Lopez ran 13:48, Ishikawa 14:32, Naraki’s 14:34, Lawson (Dan); 14:34 and Takahashi 14:52.
As further evidence of his badassery, last year, Ivan competed in a 50k race in Hungary which included this year’s second place finisher at Spartathlon, Hungary’s Zoltan “the Bolt” Csecsei. Ivan won the race running 3:22 and beating the “Bolt”, on his home turf by more than 20 minutes.
Less than 5 kilometers behind Lopez and Sorokin, are three familiar faces in the global ultrarunning community: Japan’s Nobuyuki Takahashi, Sweden’s Johan Steene and Poland’s Andrezej “Radical” Radzikowski.
Nobuyuki Takahashi is a step or two behind Sorokin and Lopez as far as leg speed is concerned however will surely be poised if they falter. He won the silver medal at last year’s Asia and Oceania IAU Championship with 252 km effort. He also qualified for Japan’s team by winning at Jingu Gaien 24-hour National Championship with a 268.78 km/167.01 mile effort. This will be his second World Championship. In 2017, at the IAU World Championship in Belfast, Takahashi was just off the podium in 4th place with 264.50 km. Takahashi is super consistent having exceeded 250 km in five of his seven 24-hour races.
The next best podium candidates are Sweden’s Johan Steene (266.51 km/165.60 miles) who won the bronze in the 2017 World Championship and Poland’s Andre “Radical” Radzikowski who took the gold at the 2018 European Championship with 265.41 km/164.92 miles. Both are in their prime, savvy, and I see no reason they will not replicate or better their prior performances.
Others: There are twenty runners qualified with performances between 157-164 miles, including three American’s Rich Riopel, Olivier LeBlond and Steve Slaby. All these runners are capable of the podium as well.
Keep your eyes particularly on Dan “not Danny Boy” Lawson, smilin’ Rich Riopel and Steve “the better half” Slaby.
Lawson is the defending champion at Albi having won the gold in the 2016 European Championship.
Riopel is coming off some serious hardcore training including time spent at high altitude.
Slaby needs to put up a big number to prove to his wife Gina (running in the Women’s WC) who wears the Altra’s in the family.
Oddsmaker’s Podium Predictions:
Gold Medal: Alexandr Sorokin – the past few years he has crashed and burned in major 24 Hour Championships after a commanding lead at the halfway point. Not in 2019—look for him to bring it home while singing Jon Bon Jovi’s:
“Woah, we’re half-way there
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Take my hand, we’ll make it I swear
Woah, livin’ on a prayer
Silver Medal: Ivan Lopez-Ivan’s only loss and subpar performance was the last 24 Hour World Championship—this time around he gets redemption.
Bronze Medal – look for a free-for-all for the last podium spot—in the end it will be the Red, White and Blue–just not sure who.
#
Runner
Kilometers
Miles
1
PENALVA LOPEZ, IVAN
273.674
170.053
2
SOROKIN, ALEKSANDR
272.708
169.453
3
TAKAHASHI, NOBUYUKI
268.783
167.014
4
STEENE, JOHAN
266.515
165.605
5
RADZIKOWSKI, ANDREZEJ
265.419
164.924
6
RUEL, STEPHANE
263.540
163.756
7
LAWSON, DANIEL
261.843
162.702
8
NARAKI, TOSHIRO
261.605
162.554
9
RIOPEL, RICH
260.425
161.821
10
INOUE, SHINGO
260.043
161.583
11
WEBER, FELIX
260.016
161.566
12
LEBLOND, OLIVIER
259.194
161.056
13
VELIČKA, ONDREJ
258.946
160.902
14
DE LAS HERAS MONFORTE, NIC
257.745
160.155
15
LOVEDAY, BARRY
257.000
159.692
16
DILMI, LUDOVIC
256.688
159.499
17
KRONEN TRANGER, BJORN TORE
256.443
159.346
18
PIOTROWSKI, ANDRZEJ
255.499
158.760
19
CSECSEI, ZOLTAN
254.908
158.392
20
BATSBERG, BRUNO
254.503
158.141
21
CLAVERY, ERIK
254.264
157.992
22
JACKSON, JACOB
253.607
157.584
23
ECKFORD, MATTHEW
253.000
157.207
24
LUX, CHRISTOPH
252.833
157.103
25
SLABY, STEVE
252.720
157.033
We are looking forward to covering the race starting Saturday am, October 26th at 10:00 am (CEST). It is shaping up to be a great battle of wills and teamwork.
JOE FEJES offers up his annual analysis of the men’s field … as only Joe Fejes can! His takes are always bold and equal parts educational and entertaining. For 2021, he and “Bad Mike” Dobies have out-done themselves on the data and analysis front as you will see below. Fejes’ predictions have not always panned out, but he one of the most experienced and credible ultra runners, especially when it comes to multi-day and 24 hour running. Enjoy!!
The Number 9 – (From Hip Hop Song by DJ Shadow, The Number Song)
“1,2,3,4,5, break down baby. Come on get with it, 1, 2,3,4, hit it. This is the number song. Count down: 1, 2, 3, go…Who got the juice? Yeah yeah yeah. I got the juice…and the party’s already started…”
Ultrarunning aficionados, the Desert Solstice 24-hour Track Invitational hosted by world class organizer Aravaipa Running will take place on December 11, 2021, at 8 am (CST) in Phoenix, Arizona. Desert Solstice is the perennial premier 24-hour competitive race in the United States and is the ideal venue for uber-talented ultrarunners to break American or even World records and to qualify for numerous USATF national teams including the 100k and 24-hour team.
To make the event even more exciting, the USATF recently announced that qualifying for the 2023 USA 24 Hour Team began December 1, which means that Desert Solstice will recognized as a qualifier. The top six men and women will represent the USA at the IAU 24 Hour World Championship in Chinese Taipei, December 2023.
Regardless of what happens at Desert Solstice, 2021 will already go down in ultrarunning history as the year that Lithuania’s Aleksandr “Sania” Sorokin ran 192.25 miles in 24 hours, breaking the “unbreakable” 24-hour 1997 World Record of 188.52 miles set by Yiannis Kouros, the Running God, by almost 4 miles.
Sorokin’s pacing was a thing of beauty that will likely be used as a reference for generations to come. As a sidenote, Sorokin is also World Record holder for 100 miles (11:14:57) and 12 hours (105+miles).
Many ultrarunning experts believed (along with Yiannis) that Yiannis’ mark would last for centuries and certainly longer than 34 years. It remains to be seen whether Sorokin’s new mark is one for the ages. Sorokin is special. In fact I believe he is the first 100-mile World Record holder to also hold the 24-hour World Record.
Almost as shocking as Sorokin’s performance was that of the second-place finisher, Ukraine’s Andrii Tkachuk, who ran 183.53, the third best 24-hour performance of all time. By the way, Tkachuk, also ran a brilliant 270 miles/435.446km in a 48-hour event a mere few weeks prior.
When I ran my first Desert Solstice in 2012, the lingo for 24-hour runners focused on 5, 6 and 7’s—meaning 150s, 160s and 170s. The 8s or 180s was silly talk. Only Yiannis, the outlier Golden Greek, had eclipsed this mark. Well, not anymore. Sorokin’s 24-hour performance has drastically changed the dynamic of 24-hour running by introducing the number “9” to ultrarunning vernacular.
190s is now the top dog in the 24.
Desert Solstice’s men and women’s field of 29 entrants is, in my opinion, the deepest ever—at least for purposes of proven 24-hour talent in Desert Solstice 12-year history. As a comparison, last year’s race had 7 runners who had run 140 miles or further. This year’s contest has 16 runners that have eclipsed 140 with three runners over 160 miles. Are we talking 9,8,7,6 or 5? Although I believe it would be a considerable stretch for any current participant to beat Sorokin’s 192+ World Record at Desert Solstice, I do think Mike Morton’s American Record of 172 miles may very well be in play for both the men AND the women.
Pacing Strategies
Before we get to the Desert Solstice race preview, let’s chat about the different pacing strategies for the 24-hour. Back in 2014, I had an impromptu introduction to Mike Dobies a/k/a “Bad Mike”, a former ultrarunner in his own right, an ultra-list geek and an expert data scientist. For my 6-day debut at ATY, Mike offered to be my co-handler along with my ultra-mentor Richard Schick. Since then, Mike has been a primary contributor to the success I’ve had in multiday running, especially in pre-race planning including pacing, nutrition and sleep strategy. Before Mike, my pacing strategy was basically to run as hard as I could for as long as I could, with a rudimentary downward adjustment for the length of the ultra. Mike educated me on the variety of pacing strategies that could be employed during a 24 hour, to wit:
flat line – perfectly even paced
the line below zero — negative split
gradual buildup, then a steep down — crash & burn
gradual slowdown
gradual slowdown with strong finish
To Mike, the shape of a runner’s curve told the story of how the race fared for the runner more so than the end result. Curves don’t lie—they reflect the trajectory of the runner’s movement from start to finish.
Keep in mind that no particular pacing strategy is better than another for every runner. At the end of the day (both proverbially and literally), the number of miles a runner completes is what ultimately counts. A heavily front-loaded running style that puts miles in the bank during the first half with a planned “crash and burn” result in the second may very well lead to a record-breaking performance. Is it the optimal pacing strategy? Maybe, maybe not. Each runner has their own running style. It’s very difficult, if not impossible, to convert a heavy front loader into a negative split style of runner.
“Balls Out, Balls In” or “Balls In, Balls Out”
Probably the best way to understand the differences in pacing strategy is the following ultrarunning fable:
One day a top collegiate distance runner (we’ll call him David) who had also recently qualified for the Olympic marathon trials with a 2:17 marathon, asked a veteran ultrarunning coach what he needed to do to run 170+ miles in 24 hours to break Mike Morton’s American Record. The grizzled coach narrowed his eyes at David and asked, “Balls out, Balls in? Or, Balls in, Balls out?”
David shook his head, perplexed. “Coach, I’m sorry, but I don’t understand what you’re asking.”
With a hint of exasperation, Coach replied, “Do you want to be like Mike, or like Olivier?”
Once again, David stood utterly confused.
Coach explained, “You see, son, Mike and Olivier had virtually the same raw speed for the standalone 100-mile distance, but each had a completely different pacing strategy for the 24-hour. Mike, at the 2012 24-hour World Championship, ran very aggressively from the start, splitting 100 miles in 13:06 when he broke the American Record with 172 miles.
“By comparison, at the 2019 24-hour World Championship, Olivier’s 100-mile split was much more conservative—actually fifty-two minutes slower—13:58 when he finished with 171.17 miles; only a mile behind Mike’s AR.” Coach showed David a chart (below) that laid out the second half marathon splits for both runners:
Marathon
Miles
Mike Morton (Katowice, 172.458)
Olivier Leblond (Albi 2019, 171.178)
Approximate Difference (minutes)
1
26.219
3:05:43
3:40:10
35
2
52.438
3:22:28
3:39:44
17
3
78.656
3:38:06
3:39:56
1
4
104.875
3:41:41
3:39:56
-2
5
131.094
3:55:37
3:45:54
-10
6
157.313
4:00:10
3:40:00
-20
last 13.1
170.413
1:57:42
1:48:15
-9
“You can see that Olivier would have been frequently lapping Mike the last 10 hours if they were in the same race,” Coach pointed out.
“Amazing,” David said. “But what does that have to do with…uh…you know…balls?”
Coach laughed. “No need to be embarrassed, son. The phrase ‘balls out’ has nothing to do with anatomy. It originated from the inner workings of the steam engine. Steam pressure and speed forced balls on either side of the engine to rise. At full speed, the two balls would fly outward. ‘Balls out’ means you’re running at full speed. If you do that at the beginning of the race, you’re running Balls out, Balls in—because you’ll have to slow down later in the race. The opposite strategy is—”
“Balls in, Balls out,” David finished, finally understanding. “Which pacing strategy hurts the most?”
Without hesitation, Coach replied, “Both hurt equally, son. There’s simply no easy way to run 170+ miles in 24 hours.”
“Pulling a Sorokin”
“The only thing that would hurt worse,” Coach warned, “would be for you to attempt to pull a Sorokin.”
Young David took the bait. “Pull a Sorokin? What does that mean?” “If you were impressed by the pacing strategies we’ve talked about, you should study Sorokin’s pacing when he broke YK’s world record. Compare Sorokin’s marathon splits to Mike’s and Olivier’s.”
Marathon
Miles
Aleksandr Sorokin (Pabianice 2021, 192.252)
1
26.219
3:13:56
2
52.438
3:13:41
3
78.656
3:11:46
4
104.875
3:12:40
5
131.094
3:14:30
6
157.313
3:17:29
7
183.531
3:21:57
“That’s crazy, Coach!” cried David, wide-eyed. “Sorokin ran 7 marathons in virtually the same time between 3:11 – 3:21 with only a slight slow down during the last split!” Coach nodded in full agreement. Look at Sorokin’s graph compared to the Golden Greek—notice that at the witching hour (16) Yiannis begins his fade while Sorokin remains in complete control. Son, that is badass.
“Now you’ve just got to figure out your own pacing strategy.”
Slowest 100 Mile Split Needed to Achieve Mileage Bracket
What is the slowest actual 100-mile splits for each mileage bracket based on historical performances?
170 =13:58 (Olivier LeBlond)
160 =14:45 (Harvey Lewis)
152 =15:38 (Anders Tysk)
Desert Solstice Entrants
Desert Solstice’s eclectic diverse field has something for everyone:
a current 24-hour World Record holder,
2nd place Team USA & 7th overall male finisher at the 2019 24-hour World Championship in Albi, France
the trans con FKT (fastest known time)
the ready-for-prime-time kid
two 2-time Desert Solstice winners,
former 24-hour American Record,
a Western States champion (and doctor)
international studs and studette
God, family, ultra
A Harvard professor and physicist
a Princeton mathematician
the Enigma.
Comparative Statistics of Desert Solstice Entrants who have run 140+miles
Camille Herron (167.84/12:42) is the current 24-hour Women’s World Record holder (167.84 miles). Her 100-mile personal best (12:42) and 24-hour best 167 miles are both the top marks for the women and men’s field. Does Camille have the leg speed to break Mike Morton’s overall American Record of 172.07 miles? Absolutely. In fact, her 100-mile time is actually better than Mike’s best 100-mile time (13:06) and is almost identical to Olivier LeBlond’s 100 miles (12:41).
Compare the data points for Mike, Olivier and Camille’s top performances:
Name
Venue & Year
Marathon
50 Mile
100 Mile
12 Hour
200 KM
24 Hour
Mike Morton
Katowice 2012 WC
3:05:48
6:09:38
13:06:12
92.3
16:40:05
172.46
Olivier Leblond
Albi 2019 WC
3:40:11
6:59:40
13:58:38
85.84
17:27:04
171.18
Camille Herron
Albi 2019 WC
3:19:10
6:20:50
13:16:27
91.06
17:06:23
167.84
It will be intriguing to see if Camille experiments with her pacing strategy and tries a curve closer to Olivier’s compared to Mike’s. As the chart indicates, Camille could run almost 40 minutes slower the first fifty miles and still theoretically target the AR.
Jacob “Jake” Jackson. Gotta love Jake! With all his tats and beard when he’s got one, Jake looks like a cross between a Motley Crue band member and a West Coast grunge trail runner (which he is). His passion is trail running (egad!) more than the track, but his 165.07 (2nd place USA team, 7th place overall male finisher) at the 2019 IAU 24-hour World Championship was badass and helped team USA win the gold medal. Jake’s a bit odd; he chews peppermint gum while running. Go figure. 2:42 marathoner to boot. If things go well, don’t be surprised to see Jake achieve a new personal best in the upper 160s.
Photo: Howie Stern for Ultrarunning Magazine
Pete Kostelnick. Best known for being the fastest person by foot ever to cross the United States coast to coast (3,067 miles), in a blistering 42 days, 6 hours and 30 minutes. He’s also a two-time Badwater 135 mile champion and is the current Desert Solstice 24-hour course record holder with 163.68 miles. Pete is signed up to run the 6-day event in a few weeks at the prestigious Across the Years (also hosted by Aravaipa Running). I presume Pete is using this race as a high-quality tune up for his upcoming ATY 6- day race. Pete ran a 14:40 100-miler earlier this year and still has the youth (age 34) and talent to run even further in the 24 hour.
Two 2-time Desert Solstice winners: Nick Coury (2018 & 2020) and Marisa Lisak (2019 & 2020):
Photo: Howie Stern
Nick Coury is undoubtedly primed for a personal best based on his recent improvement in his 100-mile time. Earlier this year at the Six Days in the Dome indoor track event, Nick ran a personal best (13:21) 100 mile split. He also ran a controlled 148 miles at a 24-hour event, without crew, under poor weather conditions. I anticipate Nick bumping his personal best from 155.41 to a low-to-mid 160 number. Other than Bob Hearn, Nick is (in my opinion) perhaps the best at executing an even paced race plan. Nick’s improved 100 speed should give him substantial confidence to plan for a slightly faster race pace than his prior Desert Solstices. 155.41 miles at a perfectly even pace is 9:16 per mile or 2:18 per 400-meter lap. 162 miles at a perfectly even pace is 8:53 per mile or 2:12 per 400-meter lap.
Marisa Lisak (148.08 24-hour personal best/14:44 100 mile). Marisa’s 100-mile personal best is about 3 minutes slower than my best (14:41) when I ran 156.62 miles at the 2012 Desert Solstice. With her experience and her solid 48-hour performances, I wouldn’t be surprised to see her set a new personal best in the low 150s.
Jacob Moss. Out of the way, Deion! Here comes Jacob (age 28) who is ready for Prime Time, baby! Jacob is a fellow Southerner/South Carolinite hailing from Charleston SC and has become a close friend of my wife’s (Kelley) and mine, running various local low country races. Over the past few years, Jacob has rapidly progressed in ultrarunning like no other. Within the past 13 months, Jacob has run: (1) a 12:54 (100 -mile) personal best at Tunnel Hill, (2) a 13:25 100-miler at the Six Days in the Dome; and (3) a 159.16 mile 24-hour at the Stinger 24-hour event outside of Atlanta, Georgia. Passionate, inquisitive, and dedicated to succeeding as an ultrarunner, Jacob is definitely not shy about targeting big goals. His recent substantial improvements in his 100-mile time should give him confidence with targeting a mid- 160s 24-hour. BTW, his 13:25 2nd place finish at the Dome was 4 minutes behind the winner who was none other than Nick Coury.
Sabrina Little (152.03/14:55) is a phenomenal runner. In 2013, Sabrina ran 152.03 miles, won the individual silver medal at the IAU World Championship, led Team USA to the gold medal and broke the 24-hour American Record. It’s been a few years since she has focused on the 24-hour, so I’m super excited over her return. At age 35, she’s plenty young, with years of competitive running potential. A personal best is certainly in play if that’s her goal.
Pam Smith (153.04/14:11) (age 47). The Doctor is in the house! Dr. Smith, a pathologist living in Salem, Oregon, ran cross country and track at Williams College in Massachusetts, then completed medical school at Temple University as the youngest person ever to graduate from Temple Medical School.
Her running career has been just as impressive. Pam finished 4th in the World at the 2019 24-hour IAU World Championship with a personal best 153.04. She was a major inspiration to me when I ran my 156-mile performance at Desert Solstice in 2012. She and I ping-ponged much of the race with her splitting 100 miles in 15:01, right behind my 14:41. The following year at DS, she crushed the 100-mile running 14:11 which is 30 minutes better than my personal best. If the desire still burns within her, she is young enough and has the ingredients to run even further in the 24-hour. She has accomplished virtually everything an ultrarunner could ever want, including but not limited to the following performances:
2013 Champion Western States
2nd place at the Spartathlon
5th place (2012 – Seragno), 10th place (2014 Qatar) & 12th place (2016-Los Alcazares) 100k IAU World Championships
4th place (20190-Brive) & 5th place (Belfast) IAU 24-hour World Championships
2nd place (JFK 50-2010)
Micah Morgan (148.68/14:44). Micah finished 3rd on Team USA and 8th in the world at the 2019 24-hour World Championship in Albi, France, with a sparkling 148.68 miles. She ran two sub-15 100-milers this year, a harbinger of priming for a personal best. I see mid 150s happening if Micah has a good day (and night).
International Studs & Studette:
Simen Holvik (157.42/14:06). This Norwegian runner had an impressive 2020, running his personal best 157.42 miles 24 hour at the “24 Hours of Hell” just in front of Theresa Falk (2nd place) and Bjorn Tore Kronen Taranger (3rd place). Simen’s 100-mile split was 14:42. According to Aravaipa, in July 2021 Simen set the FKT for the 2600 km crossing of Norway. Additionally, he finished 20th at the Spartathlon in 27:48, about 43 minutes behind Marisa Lizak and about an hour ahead of Bob Hearn. Desert Solstice should be an ideal venue and environment for Simen to get a new personal best—maybe even see 160.
Hristo Tsvetkov (153.04/12:48). 27-year-old youngster from Bulgaria ran his 12:48 personal best 100-miler less than 4 months ago. Look out for those ultrarunners from Eastern Europe—Lithuania, Ukraine, Romania, Czech, Hungary, Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, etc. They are hardcore. Think I’m joking? Check out the current top four 24-hour performances for 2021:
1. Aleksandr Sorokin 309.39 (km) Lithuania
2. Andril Tkachuk 295.36 (km) Ukraine
3. Iulian Filipov 277.47 (km) Romania
4. Andrzej Piotrowki 272.60 (km) Poland
I anticipate a substantial breakout personal best from Hristo at DS. Don’t be surprised to see him in the mix for the podium.
Padraig Mullins (142.43/15:35). My good Irish friend who also happens to be the biggest trash talker about my race prediction skills. Padraig has been on several Irish national teams including their 100k team selected earlier this year, as well as the 2019 24-hour team that competed in the IAU 24-hour World Championship in Albi, France. Padraig ran a 15:35 100-miles at the Six Days in the Dome in June 2021. If things go as planned, Padraig is capable of hitting a mid to high 140s mark. Padraig, pal, count your blessings, as what you’ve called my “kiss of death podium pick” will not be bestowed upon you this year.
Viktoria Brown (132/15:24). Born in Hungary and residing in Canada, this elite triathlete only recently started running ultras, but has already set several Canadian ultra-records. Viktoria’s 15:24 100-mile effort earlier this year is indicative of her ability to go much further than 132 miles in 24 hours. She is super tough, too. I watched her withstand significant muscular injuries (anterior tibialis tendonitis) in her 6-day debut that would have stopped almost every ultrarunner I know. Her performance reminded me of the famous battle scene between Arthur and the Black Knight in the movie Monty Python & The Holy Grail, where Arthur severs the Black Knight’s right arm and the Black Knight responds, “’Tis but a scratch.” Arthur then cuts off the Black Knights left arm and exclaims, “Look, you’ve got no arms left!” The Black Knight responds, “It’s just a flesh wound.” With similar persistence, Viktoria ended up breaking the Canadian 48- and 72-hour marks—an astounding testament to her toughness and determination.
Arlen Glick (4-hour debut/12:57). He’s the hottest 100-mile runner on the planet in 2021 with four super-fast 100s (13:14, 14:15, 15:22 & 13:22) for the year. Arlen has won an amazing nine out of the ten 100-mile races he has entered. His only loss was to Taggart Vanetten at Tunnel Hill, but he did set a personal best of 12:57. To get insight on Arlen, I listened to podcasts he did with Run the Riot and Ridge RUNers Live. Interesting tidbits: Arlen, age 28, has Strava but no other social media. Born and raised in Massillon, Ohio, he is a devout, 5th-generation Mennonite who lives with his parents, was homeschooled, and works in the family business. His siblings crew him and are very efficient in doing so. He totaled only 8 minutes of down time at Tunnel Hill, primarily for stretching. He rarely listens to music during his runs, but when he does, it’s gospel music. His priorities in life are God, family, and, as of late, winning 100-mile races.
In learning about Arlen, I flashed back to my own childhood and times spent at my grandparents’ farmhouse in Burton, Ohio, a community where horse-drawn buggies are driven by bearded men in dark clothes with suspenders and broad-brimmed hats. My grandfather talked about the residents of neighboring farms, describing to me the Amish/Mennonite way of life, generally without technology, automobiles or even modern farming equipment. Did the natural simplicity of his upbringing (without texts, email and zoom meetings) endow Arlen with the ability to super-focus during ultra races, and his old-fashioned farm work give him super stamina?
Time will tell. Arlen’s running skills are well worth watching. His top end 100-mile speed is virtually identical to Jacob Moss and is only minutes way from Camille and Olivier’s personal bests. Clearly Arlen is comfortable trailing a group of elites but has no problem running in the front if the opportunity presents itself. During the Ridge Runner’s podcast, co-guest Traci Falbo recommended Arlen run the Desert Solstice 24 hour, slow down to an even pace, and make the U.S. 24-hour team.
If Desert Solstice were a 100-mile race, Arlen would be my prohibitive favorite. There is, however, a massive difference between the 100 mile and the 24-hour. Desert Solstice track is littered with the dashed hopes of many elite 100-mile phenoms that crashed and burned over the second half of the race. Arlen will have to run 7 hours more than his longest effort to date. I’ll be particularly interested in how he fares from hour 16-20. Knocking it out of the park is daunting in a 24-hour debut, especially if Desert Solstice is the setting. Worse-case scenario, DS will be an education. Arlen is definitely a wildcard, though, and undoubtedly has the raw speed to hit a big number and make the podium.
Scott Traer. Scott qualified for the 2013 24-hour team with 140.41 miles and would have been my teammate on our gold medal winning effort, but he declined to participate in the World Championship held in Steenbergen. According to a 2014 interview, Traer objected to Nike’s exclusive sponsorship policy, believing that the USATF was exploiting runners. (Perhaps to his point, a Runner’s World article on November 30 reported that a grand jury subpoenaed documents from Nike and the USTAF as part of an apparent ongoing criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia.)
In 2021, Scott ran two sub 14:00 100-mile performances—a great indicator of his potential to put up a substantial number in the 24-hour. Don’t be surprised if he shatters his prior personal best and sees the 150s. If Scott qualifies for the 24-hour team again, it will be interesting to see if he accepts the spot this time around.
Jenny Hoffman (142.02/15:55) (age 43). Ummm…Jenny’s a Harvard professor and a world class physicist. [full stop]. Here’s a snippet from her CV: Hoffman’s research program combines molecular beam epitaxy and scanning probe microscopy to image and manipulate the nanoscale electronic and magnetic properties of quantum materials.
Summary of Jenny Hoffman’s education:
• Ph.D. in Physics, University of California, Berkeley, 2003
Thesis: “A Search for Alternative Electronic Order in the High Temperature Superconductor”
• M.A. in Physics, University of California, Berkeley, 5/2001
• B.A. magna cum laude with Highest Honors in Physics, Harvard University, 1999
Seriously, do we even need to talk about Jenny’s running skills? And here I thought Bob Hearn was the smartest ultrarunner I knew. Jenny’s running CV is almost as impressive as her education accomplishments: in 2017, she qualified for the US 24-hour Team and competed in the IAU World Championship in Belfast. She has a 142.02 personal best in the 24-hour and is a 3-time national champion, having won the North Coast 24 in 2014, 2015 and 2016. A couple years ago, Jenny missed breaking the women’s Trans USA coast to coast crossing FKT when her knee gave out—after she’d completed 2,560 miles with only 460 miles left. She had been averaging 61 miles per day and was on pace to break the record by nearly 6 days. She is also an accomplished trail runner. In 2004 she finished 1st female and 3rd overall at the Superior Sawtooth 100. Jenny has oodles of 24-hour experience, having run 126.76 at the Across the Years 24 way back in 2005. Her 15:55 100-mile performance this year at Pine Creek Challenge says she still has the skill set to achieve a personal best.
Whitney Richman (139.69/16:13). Whitney qualified for the US 24 hour team that was supposed to compete in the World Championship earlier this year in Bucharest, Romania. Unfortunately, the IAU was forced to cancel the event. Hopefully she will be able to make the 2023 team that is scheduled to compete in Chinese Tapei in December 2023.
Matt – on left!
Matthew Urbanski (24 debut/14:04). Matthew is a running coach and prolific 100 miler who can run technical mountains as well as the track. A world traveler, he has recently been running ultras in Australia, New Zealand. He has wheels:
15:26 3rd place in 2018 Umstead 100
4th place 14:55 in 2017 Javelina Jundred
3rd place 14:04 in 2017 Rocky Raccoon
10th place at 2019 Leadville
2nd at 2017 Cascade Crest 100
Has run Chamonix both CCC & UTMB;
A 2:33 marathoner-collegiate runner at University of Cincinnati, Matthew ran low15-minute 5ks and 32 minute 10ks. His experience, diversity and speed promise huge potential. It will be fascinating to see how his 24-hour track debut goes. He’s a wildcard, for sure.
Dan McHugh. (14:34). Hopefully Dan will represent the 50+ age group well. He definitely still has the motor—14:34, 4th place finish at the 2020 Jackpot Ultra Festival 100 mile along with a 15:22 performance at the 2019 Tunnel Hill 100. He tried running the Alexander 24-hour event earlier this year, but weather conditions were less than ideal. Would love to see him hang a 140+ mile performance at DS.
Rolfe Schmidt (145.8/15:42). Rolfe won the 2019 Desert Solstice 24-hour and met the qualifying mark for the USA 24-hour Team, holding the #5 slot. His 145.8-mile qualifier, however, was eventually eclipsed by Nick Coury (155.41) and Ryan Montgomery (154.71) at last year’s Desert Solstice. Almost as impressive, Rolfe is a serious mathematician who graduated from Princeton University.
David Laney (24 debut/14:03). Did David book a wrong flight to Phoenix rather than Chamonix, France? Somebody tell him DS is a 24-hour track event and not in the Swiss Alps. The track is zero elevation and certainly isn’t as breathtaking as Grand Col Ferret, (the highest peak) of the Ultra Trail du Mont Blanc (UTMB)! Want an impressive running resume? How about a 3rd place at UTMB? Throw in a 2:17:02 marathon in 2014 that was a 2016 Olympic marathon trial qualifier. In 2015, David won the USATF 100k trail championship, the Chuckanut 50k, and took 12th place at the IAU world trail championship, helping Team USA to a silver medal in the team competition. In 2015, he was named the Ultrarunner of the Year. In 2018, he took a break from competition, but did end up running a blazing 14:03 at Rocky Raccoon. In a blog post shortly after RR, David wrote, “Fast courses are really nice…Maybe I need to find a road 100? Word on the street is David picked Desert Solstice to satisfy his desire for a fast 100-mile time. I’m a bit disappointed if he doesn’t go the full 24-hour. His resume strongly suggests solid odds of qualifying for the 24-hour USA Team which will compete in the IAU World Championship to be held in China Taipei in 2023. BTW, he recently ran 2:28 at the NY Marathon as a prelude to DS. If David’s goal was the 24-hour he would have been my surprise podium pick. Hopefully next year he graduates from the 100 to the 160+ big league.
Podium Picks
The weather forecast is excellent (66/43) and sunny for tomorrow’s race. It will be a bit warm during the afternoon but otherwise should be nearly perfect. Especially good sign for Arlen Glick who likes cooler weather. After much consideration, my podium picks are primarily based on proven 24-hour talent and strong recent performances as follows:
Men: expect a three way dogfight between Coury, Moss & Jackson—flip a coin
Winner: Nick Coury -2 time winner eeks out the win by less than a mile with 165.5
2nd Jacob Moss-165.16
3rd Jake Jackson-165
Wildcards- Hristo Tsvetko, Arlen Glick, Scott Traer & Simen Holvik
My presumption is Nick, Jacob & Jake primary goal at Desert Solstice will be to run 160+ and earn qualifier slots for Team USA team and a trip to the World Championship in Taipei in December 2023. Watch out for the internationals too: The youngster Hristo, the Bulgarian will likely run with abandon, set a personal best and challenge for the W. I also like Simen Holvik’s podium chances. I think he will soak up the Phoenix/Desert Solstice experience and eclipse 160. I anticipate super quick Arlen Glick to have a formidable lead at 1st 100 miles–the only unknown is whether he can endure 16 hours+. If yes, he wins.
Women:
Winner: Camille Herron wins overall outright with 169 miles, just shy of Mike’s AR.In an effort to make th USA TEAM, expect another dogfight in the womens race. The top three or four could be within a few miles of each otherin the end.
2nd Pam Smith
3rd Marisa Lizak
Wildcards: Micah Morgan, Whitney Richman & Sabrina Little
Notable absentees: Zach Bitter, Pat Reagan, Ryan Montgomery, Harvey Lewis, Bob Hearn, Taggart Vanetten, Courtney Dauwalter, the Slaby’s, Jon Olsen and Rich Riopel.
Supporting Data:
Listed below are historical data points for both Desert Solstice and the best 24 hour and 100-mile times for the DS entrants:
The eyes of the running community will fall upon Bell Buckle, TN this weekend – and into next week – for Big Dog’s Backyard Ultra which starts Saturday am 7:00 CDT. This year it’s the World Championship with runners who qualified in Backyards around the globe competing for the individual championship…only one will walk away as the Last Person Standing.
Due to travel restrictions, athletes who qualified from Europe will not be attending, despite lengthy steps taken to secure exemptions. While this is disappointing for everyone involved with the race, especially for the athletes who worked hard and met the qualifications with incredible performances, The BIG SHOW will go on.
This year’s runners make up of a deep and experienced field – the strongest to date. Here is the list of 35 runners competing to be the 2021 Big Dog’s Backyard World Champion. List is in rank order based yards completed in qualifying races (Name/Age/Country or Nationality/Yards):
Portrait of Ultramarathon athlete Harvey Lewis
portrait
Eden Park
8/17/2021
X163764TK1
Credit: David E. Klutho
Joe Fejes offers up his analysis of the men’s field. His takes are always bold and equal parts educational and entertaining. His predictions have not always panned out, but he one of the most experienced and credible ultra runners, especially when it comes to multi-day and 24 hour running. Enjoy!!
LAST CHANCE 24 HOUR USA TEAM QUALIFIER
ALEXANDER 24 HOUR Taylorsville, NC Saturday, May 1, 2021 (8:00 am EST)
Who will qualify for the USA 24 Hour Team to compete in the IAU 24 hour World Championship scheduled for October 2-3 in Romania?
The current 6 qualifying spots are held by:
1. Camille Herron (AUTO), 167.846 Miles (270.116Km)
2. Pam Smith, 153.041 Miles (246.289Km)
3. Micah Morgan, 148.685 Miles (239.279Km)
4. Marisa Lizak, 148.08 Miles (238.305Km)
5. Courtney Dauwalter, 142.749 Miles (220.726Km)
6. Whitney Richman, 139.69 Miles (224.80Km)
NOTABLE WOMEN:
As a kid, I vividly remember playing the classic game of “Queen of the Mountain” where the object was the first to get on the hill at the start becomes the Queen. To become a Queen, you need to go up the hill and push the Queen off. The most common way the “Queen” can be removed from the hill ordinarily was by pushing with your hands. Punching and kicking typically were not allowed. The Queen of course had a huge tactical advantage over the other participants because it is easier to defend against someone climbing a hill.
Whitney Richman. Age 40
Richman currently holds the final qualifying spot (#6) with 139.69 miles achieved at last year’s Desert Solstice splitting 16:13 for 100 miles. Think of Whitney as the existing Queen of the Mountain. The other contestants face an uphill battle trying to push her off the proverbial mountain. My hunch is Whitney is primed mentally and physically well prepared to defend her spot. As evidence of her fitness, she recently won the Blackbeard’s revenge 100 miler in 17:39, more than 3 hours faster than the next runner. At a minimum, assuming an even split pace from start to finish, any runner that wants to run more than Whitney’s 139.69 miles needs leg speed of at least 17:10 for 100 miles. Realistically I think low 16 speed is needed. I’m not sure that any of the current entrants have the requisite leg speed to mount a serious challenge to Whitney’s qualifying mark.
That is of course, unless a surprise late entrant such as Gina Slaby, Aly Venti, Katy Nagy, Pam Smith, Traci Falbo, et al shows up at the starting line.
Below are a few runners that could surprise with a Hail Mary performance:
(1) Laurie Dymond. Age 55
In 2015, Laurie ran a personal best of 135.5 miles in 24 hours at the US National Championship which qualified her as an alternate for the 2017 US Team that competed in Belfast Ireland.
(2) Loretta Tobolske-Horn. Age 49
Ran 17:21 at the 2019 Tunnel Hill 100 miler. Loretta is also scheduled to run the 24 hours at the Six Days in the Dome in June.
(3) Sally Van Nuland. Age 46
Sally achieved her 123 mile personal best in the 24 hour at the 2019 Stinger. Sally’s specialty is the multiday having run 386 miles for 6 days at the last Six Days in the Dome. She has recently been focusing on shorter ultras and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a personal best at Alexander.
(4) Shannon Johnstone. Age 47
Shannon achieved a personal best of 113.52 miles at the 24 hours at the 2019 Six Days in the Dome indoor event.
NOTABLE FOREIGN ENTRANTS:
(5) Yvonne Naughton. Age 42
Last year, Yvonne was the overall winner the Lhotse 24 hour with an impressive 133.02 miles splitting 17:28 for 100 miles. Yvonne competed for Ireland’s national team at the 2018 World Trail Championship in Spain, the 2017 and 2018 24 hour World Championships in Belfast and France, respectively. She is a 3:28 marathoner and is a current resident of Bend, OR. I am not sure if Yvonne is currently eligible for Team USA.
(6) Viktoria Brown
Hungary native current resident of Canada. 24 hour personal best of 132.86 miles and a 48 hour best of 202.06 miles which is the Canadian record. Viktoria is an accomplished Ironman Triathlete. Vikotria is using the Alexander 24 in preparation for her 6 day debut at the Six Days in the Dome in June. Viktoria’s blog is worth a read: https://holdthecarbs.ca/blogs/viktoria-brown.
Joe Fejes offers up his analysis of the men’s field. His takes are always bold and equal parts educational and entertaining. His predictions have not always panned out, but he one of the most experienced and credible ultra runners, especially when it comes to multi-day and 24 hour running. Enjoy!!
LAST CHANCE 24 HOUR USA TEAM QUALIFIER
ALEXANDER 24 HOUR Taylorsville, NC Saturday, May 1, 2021 (8:00 am EST)
Who will qualify for the USA 24 Hour Team to compete in the IAU 24 hour World Championship scheduled for October 2-3 in Romania?
The current 6 qualifying spots are held by:
1. Olivier Leblond, 171.183 Miles (275.485Km)
2. Jacob Jackson, 165.071 Miles (265.649Km)
3. Harvey Lewis, 160.702 Miles (258.619Km)
4. Jacob Moss, 159.16 Miles (256.14KM)
5. Nick Coury, 155.41 Miles (250.11Km)
6. Ryan Montgomery, 154.71 Miles (248.97Km)
Weather Forecast: Pretty damn good. 74/49 (sunny). Afternoon hours will be warm but the night should be perfect once the sun goes down.
NOTABLE MEN- Please note: I normally list order descending in age out of my respect for my elders however I feel that is politically incorrect to do so today and in would also give more attention to my arch nemesis age grouper Bob Hearn. Therefore we will ascend.
Issac Schuetz: Age 24
Newcomer to Ultrarunning with uber impressive leg speed. Ran XC and Track for the University of Wisconsin-Platteville 2:41 marathoner; 4:37 miler; 15:50 (5k) 32:17 (10k). If the race were a marathon – Isaac would be my pick to win, but it isn’t and he ain’t. Isaac has only run one ultra (12 hour/80 mile) and this will be his debut at 24 hours. Nevertheless he might be Alexander’s “surprise” version of Ryan Montgomery’s (154 miles) performance in last year’s Desert Solstice. In fact, if the stars align, the other runners might find themselves running in “Schuetz Creek” without a paddle.
Jacob Moss: Age 27
Current holder of the #4 spot with a brilliant 159.16 mile performance at Kevin & Annie Randolph’s “The Stinger 24”. I personally witnessed his performance and it was flawless. He is passionate about the sport and always striving to learn and improve. His conditioning has continued to improve and I expect to see him PR with a low to mid 160 performance even though he is almost assured of making the team. Jacob is my prohibitive favorite.
Nick Coury: Age 34
Anyone remember the three Jones Brothers (Lam, Ham and Jam) that played for the Texas Longhorns football team back in the 70s? Well, the three Coury Brothers (Jamil, Nathan & Nick) are ultrarunning’s equivalent. Nick’s been running ultramarathons for almost 20 years and was actually my teammate on the 2012 USA 24 hour Team when we won the bronze medal behind Mike Morton’s 172 mile AR. Nick is notorious for his uncanny ability to run almost perfectly even splits from start to finish.
Irunfar recently had a great interview with Nick: https://www.irunfar.com/…/catching-up-with-nick-coury.html. Nick is in his prime and ready to bust out to yet another PR though he may back off if it isn’t needed. Kudos to Nick for traveling all the way from Arizona to defend his #5 spot. That is EXACTLY the mindset Team USA needs to be successful.
Sho Gray: Age 33
15:24 Pistol 100 mile race a few years ago is solid. Sho has struggled a bit with the 24 hour in recent years, so he is due to put a solid one together.
Mark Manz: Age 35
137 miles four years ago at Hinson Lake 24 hour which in my opinion equates to a likely 143+ miles on the track. 14:16 Umstead 100 miler back in 2012. 3rd place 5:13 at Strolling Jim 50k in 2014. He has the ability for 150+ 24 hour but really hasn’t raced much the past few years.
Padraig Mullins: Age 39
Good friend of mine. 142 miles at the North Coast 24 hour in 2018. He is in his prime agewise—I wouldn’t be surprised to see a PR if he is fit and in right mindset—lack of racing due to Covid however makes this a crapshoot.
Lee Whittaker: Age 47
Local boy–Rock Hill, South Carolina-high school track coach who has had a couple solid ultrarunning experiences including a 14:11 at the Daytona 100 and a 4th place 28:13 performance at Badwater. This is Lee’s debut at the 24 hour.
Dan McHugh: Age 50
14:34 100 miler at 2020 Jackpot Ultra and a 15:22 at 2020 Tunnel Hill suggest ability to run 150+ miles in the 24 hour.
Bob Hearn: Age 55
Did Bob make a mistake with his event calendaring? Maybe he really meant to sign up for the pickleball championship at the Villages? To my detriment, Bob dominated the age 50-54 age group, setting American records in virtually (pun intended) every ultrarunning category (except the 6 day-dammit!). Don’t let his geeky, techy exterior fool you, beneath that computer chip surface is a cold blood ultrarunning assassin ready, willing and able to make Team USA. I see Bob + or – 1 mile from the required qualifying mark.
If I were Ryan Montgomery I’d be concerned…very concerned.
Joe Fejes offers up his annual analysis of the men’s field … as only Joe Fejes can! His takes are always bold and equal parts educational and entertaining. His predictions have not always panned out, but he one of the most experienced and credible ultra runners, especially when it comes to multi-day and 24 hour running. Enjoy!!
The men’s race for Saturday’s Desert Solstice 24 hour ultrarunning track event in Phoenix Arizona will undoubtedly be mesmerizing for the ultra-community to follow and has the potential as being one of the most competitive events ever with at least 7 runners that have run more than 140 miles in 24 hours.
Desert Solstice promises to be even more captivating than Kilian Jornet’s recent ill-fated 24 hour World Record attempt in Norway, since Zach Bitter recently made it known that he too is gunning for the immortal Yiannis Kouros 24 hour WR of 188.589 miles. The acronym has shifted from the past tense WWJD (“What Would Jornet Do”) to the present tense of WWZD (“What Will Zach Do”) .
Zach’s 11:19 100 mile (6:47 pace per mile) and 104.8 miles 12 hour World Records achieved two years ago at the Six Days in the Dome was by far the greatest ultrarunning effort I have ever personally witnessed-even greater than when I witnessed Mike Morton’s 172 mile 24 hour American Record. In my opinion, Zach is virtually the only human alive that has a realistic chance of approaching YK’s WR. For those unaware, Zach’s 104.8 mile 12 hour mark is actually more than 4 miles further than the Running God’s former 12 hour World Record performance (100.78 miles).
In my opinion, Zach’s achievements haven’t received the recognition that he deserves. Of course, Zach’s attempt will not be without drama since Debbie Downer naysayers (or other ultrarunning community trolls) will point to Zach’s unsuccessful 2018 24 hour debut that ended prematurely after “X” hours after he completed 116 miles. Zach has yet to prove he can go the full 24 hour duration. If he does, look for a YUGE number. It should be no surprise that Zach should be considered the prohibitive favorite to win the 24 hour if he goes the full duration. Sure t’aint easy—just ask Kilian.
Zach’s climb to the top of the podium will not be without challenge from the rest of the field. In fact, truth be told, if I were a betting man and If Vegas were taking bets on this year’s Desert Solstice, I would bet the field v. the favorite. Why, you may ask?
High Stakes: The USA Team 24 hour qualification is slated to end soon on January 20, 2021. Currently there are only 5 qualifiers for the 6 qualifying spots. The current list of qualifiers along with respective qualifying mileage: Olivier Leblond (Auto) 171.18, Jacob Jackson, 165.07, Harvey Lewis, 160.70, Jacob Moss, 159.15 and Rolfe Schmidt, 145.8. Keep in mind that most of the participants at Desert Solstice signed up with the sole intention of making the USA national team. The minimum qualifying standard for the men is 145 miles.
Variance Risk/Strength in Numbers: A personal best performance in the 24 hour for any one participant is highly dependent upon a number of variables which means that it is rare for a 24 hour runner to always meet or exceed expectations in any given race. Betting the field results in lower volatility since the risk is spread across multiple runners rather isolated in a single runner.
Field Predictions for the men’s field. Let’s take a brief look at a few of our 18 horses:
Olivier Leblond. Big “O” in my opinion is the best multiday runner in ultrarunning today. Big O’s (24) hour personal best of 171.17 miles at last year’s IAU World Championship fell 1 mile short of breaking Mike Morton’s 172.45 American Record. It is my understanding however that Olivier’s goal at Desert Solstice is to achieve a 100 mile personal best and nothing more. If Olivier were targeting the 24 at DS, Zach would not be my prohibitive favorite. Olivier already qualified the national team by virtue of his bronze medal individual performance at the last IAU 24 hour World Championship.
Jacob Jackson. JJ is my vote for today’s 2nd best 24 hour runner behind only Olivier LeBlond. He is the rarity amongst 24 hour runners having nailed his debut by running 253.614 km at the 2018 Desert Solstice and qualifying for the 2019 USA Team with an astounding inaugural 24 hour performance of 157.58 miles. For comparison sake, my best ever 24 hour performance was 156 miles.
At the IAU World Championship, JJ improved on his 157.58, debut performance by a staggering 7.48 miles, finishing in 7th on the World Stage with 165.06 miles. His mark is also the 7th best American performance ever.
As a side note, let the record reflect that I predict great things for JJ’s future in multiday running. JJ v. Big O will likely be the multiday running future equivalent to the Ali v. Frazier boxing matches. Or maybe even like the great westerns on TV–if I was a participant against these two – I’d be certain to get the hell out of Dodge.
Harvey Lewis a/k/a “Mr. Consistency”. In certain respects, Harv could be considered the best 24 hour in the world for the past decade, with a personal best of 160.34 miles and more than seven other annual performances of 140 miles since 2011, to wit: 2019 (160.69), 2018 (153.48), 2017 (144.18), 2015 (158.74), 2014 (154.58), 2013 (150.58), 2012 (148.95) and 2011 (140.57). Harvey’s passion is competing for Team USA and I expect he will be primed again for his opportunity to make the team yet again.
Nick Coury. Nick was my teammate on our 2013 (24 hour) USA national team when we won the gold medal at the IAU World Championship in Steenbergen, Netherlands. From 2014-2018 Nick primarily focus was trail running. At the 2018 Desert Solstice, Nick shocked the ultrarunning community (and particularly this commentator) by running a personal best 24 hour distance of 155.03 miles after a pedestrian-like 15:33 100 mile split.
Bob Hearn. What about Bob? As sad as it may sound, Desert Solstice may very well represent Bob’s last real opportunity of making Team USA. He is now the ripe old age of 55 and Father Time can be seen on trackside carrying his hourglass and swiping at Bob’s Nike’s with his scythe.
To my personal chagrin (I’m turning 55 myself on Monday), Bob has dominated the 50-54 age group record scene. In fact, earlier this year he ran a personal best 14:44 100 mile at the SC Ultrarunning Festival (“SCURF”). Bob has current 24 hour personal best of 154.05 miles. Despite Bob’s advanced age, he is still capable of putting up a mid to high 150 mile mark and is notorious for his steady pacing,
Bob has suffered considerable heartbreak in the last two national qualifiers. In the 2018 Desert Solstice 24 hour, Bob was rudely bumped out of the final qualifying spot for the 2019 national team, over the last four hundred meters by Greg Armstrong (and Nick Coury). In 2017, Bob suffered even a more gut wrenching result, collapsing on the track at the end of 24 hours and realizing he missed the final team slot by less than 300 meters. For a great read on Bob check out his blog: http://bobhearn.blogspot.com/2017/04/run4water-2017-my-masterpiece.html
Weather: Saturday’s forecast for Phoenix metropolitan is looking solid for the runners—fairly moderate temps- 67/46 with partly cloudy conditions. The Desert Solstice track is of course naturally exposed to full sun conditions and often feels much warmer than the actual temperature. Word of advice to those runners that struggle with GI issues in the 24 hour or have a tendency to blow chunks—I highly recommend you leave some slack in your line during the day and only reel it in once the sun goes down—you will be better off.
Race predictions: The talent in the men’s field is loaded. The field includes the World’s Fastest Man (at least for 100 miles) Zach Bitter who has the potential (at least on paper) to break Mike Morton’s 172 mile American Record and perhaps even mount a serious challenge to Yiannis Kouros’s untouchable 188+ miles. It also features a group of highly disciplined, experienced 24 hour veterans (Coury, Lewis, Hearn) who are almost guaranteed to exceed the 145 mile minimum qualifying standard.
Traer, Trammell & Pope might sound like a great name for a law firm but don’t be surprised if you hear these names as having met the 145 mile minimum qualifying standard too. In fact, virtually every runner in the field has a realistic potential of meeting the standard.
This race is likely to be a mental monster for many of the runners chasing the 24 hour qualification because they are in no man’s land—caught up in a crossfire between the likely whir of Bitter & Leblond circling the track and the passive aggressive (but deadly) pacing of the terrific three Hearn, Coury & Lewis designed to ever so subtly reel in the competition as the race unfolds.
I’m particularly concerned about the impact the two widely divergent race strategies may have on several of the less experienced ultrarunners, more specifically: Camastro, Urbankski & McHugh. All three of these runners have 100 mile personal best of 15:30 or faster and may be susceptible to getting swept up running too fast from the start. As such I believe they have elevated C & B (crash & burn) risk levels. The good news for them, my pre-race predictions are overwhelmingly wrong.
Ryan Clifford, age 24, might be Desert Solstice’s entrant that is equivalent to the Barkley’s sacrificial virgin—I believe this will be Ryan’s second ultra and first over 12 hours. Although Ryan is a newcomer to ultrarunning, he has uber impressive shorter distance credentials and is a graduate assistant/track coach at Minot State University in Minot, North Dakota. He is a 4:27 miler, a 14:38 5ker, and a 2:55 marathoner. Trust me when I say that the urge to keep up with the faster runners will likely be irresistible. His C & B risk level is off the grid—the equivalent of jumping in a pool of gasoline with a lighted match.
Podium Picks:
Zach Bitter. I like Zach’s chance to go the duration—especially if his game plan is to run his own race rather than succumbing to trying to break YK’s 188 mile WR. Sometimes less is more. Most importantly, I hope his “A” goal is to qualify for Team USA.
Jake Jackson. Astounding fact. If JJ improved his performance in his 3rd attempt at the 24 hour by the same margin (i.e. 7.48) miles that he did in his 2nd attempt—he would run 172.54 miles break Mike Morton’s current American Record of 172.48.
Harvey Lewis. I flip flopped between Harvey and Nick Coury for the bottom rung on the podium—flip a coin. I gave Harvey the edge based on his 160 mile performance at the World Championship. Nick’s recent 14:09–performance at Javelina Jundred earlier this year is a harbinger of his recent fitness level and suggests he could improve significantly on his 155 mile personal best performance achieved at the 2018 Desert Solstice.
25 countries and ~300 ultra athletes from around the world will be competing this weekend. Only one country and one runner will be left standing at the end. Here is the roster for Team USA (alphabetically listed): *Note: Jordan Webster McKelley earned a spot on TEAM USA, but had to decline due to injury. He will be replaced by Brian Trinkle.
Big Dog’s Backyard will start this weekend in Bell Buckle, TN. This year’s event was to bring Golden Tickets winners from around the world together to compete head-to-head until only one person remained.
Then 2020 happened.
Not to be deterred, race organizer, Gary “Laz Lake” Cantrell just added a few twists and turns to the grueling, yet fascinating race. To adhere to COVID guidelines for safety and travel restrictions, each county will host its own satellite Backyard race. The concept is excruciatingly simple: you have one hour to complete a 4.16 mile loop or yard. This repeats until only one runner remains). While individuals will compete against each other this year, National pride is also on the line. We expect more camaraderie and support within the teams. In total, over 25 countries have fielded teams with ~300 of the top endurance athletes, racing simultaneously from different venues in their home countries to see who will be the last runner standing!
The tough trail and road course at Big’s will be home to the USA team. Here is the roster for team USA (alphabetically listed): *Note: Jordan Webster McKelley earned a spot on TEAM USA, but has to decline due to injury. He will be replaced by Brian Trinkle.
AMELIA BOONE (GOLDEN, CO) Age: 37
LONGEST DISTANCE: 112 miles MY CREW: Gina Fioroni RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • 3x World’s Toughest Mudder Champion • Spartan Race World Champion I LOOK FORWARD TO: Running around with friends! And all the hallucinations! SPONSORS: HumanN, Ultimate Direction, Big Spoon Roasters and Addaday
JACOB CONRAD (WOOSTER, OH) Age: 35
LONGEST DISTANCE: 170 miles MY CREW: Kyle Wittel, and my father Paul Conrad RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • Winner of Bob’s Big Timber Backyard Ultra with 41 hours/170 miles, • 3 consecutive podium finishes at the Mohican 100 I LOOK FORWARD TO: I’m excited to get the chance to run with a great field of runners and see how far I can go. It seems like it’ll be a great environment to go for lots and lots of miles. SPONSORS: Vertical Runner Race Team and XOSKIN
COURTNEY DAUWALTER (Golden, CO) Age: 35
LONGEST DISTANCE: 309 miles of the Colorado Trail MY CREW: KEVIN!! RACE HIGHLIGHTS: Crewing Kevin at The Bear, running a 24 hour race with my mom, finishing my first 100 miler at Superior 100 with my family crewing & pacing I LOOK FORWARD TO: Running with this fantastic group of athletes, helping each other push our limits and hallucinating some new friends. SPONSORS: Salomon, Sufferfest Beer, Suunto, Tailwind Nutrition, Addaday, Honey Stinger, Injinji, Squirrel’s Nut Butter, Superfeet
AARON ELLISON (ELLICOTT CITY, MD) Age: 44
LONGEST DISTANCE: 112 miles MY CREW: No crew RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • Golden ticket winner of the Capital Backyard Ultra • 3rd at Orcas Island 100 • 7th at Cruel Jewel 100 I LOOK FORWARD TO: Meeting all my famous teammates. Seeing how far I can go as I didn’t get to find out at the Capital Backyard Ultra.
JOE FEJES (Columbia, SC) Age: 54
LONGEST DISTANCE: 606 miles 6 days MY CREW: My ultra-runner extraordinaire wife, Kelley RACE HIGHLIGHTS: A few years ago I ran 44 hours at Bigs. I know I can do better. No one in the field has run 100+ miles for six days. I will win this. I LOOK FORWARD TO: Hanging with my multiday brother (and my idol) David Johnston for many hours… SPONSORS: XOSKIN Compression Shorts —when you want game day advantage in multi-day running—go thin, go breathable, go commando, go XOSKIN!! Great stuff!!
MAGGIE GUTERL (Durango, CO) Age: 40
LONGEST DISTANCE: 250 miles MY CREW: Otto Lam RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • 2019 Last Man Standing at Bigs • 2015 Gold Medal 24 Hour USA Team I LOOK FORWARD TO: Running with friends for days! SPONSORS: Tailwind Nutrition, Drymax, Leki, Trail Toes
DAVID JOHNSTON (Warrenton, MO) Age: 50
LONGEST DISTANCE: 551 Six Day, 43 yards Bigs MY CREW: The Best: My Dad, Frank Johnston RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • 1st – Iditarod Trail Invitational – 350 Miler – Knik, AK, 2018 • 1st – Susitna 100 – 100 Mile Run – Big Lake, AK, 2019 and 2020 • Countless 24 hour and multi-day events I LOOK FORWARD TO: Running with King Joe Fejes….Joe! Joe! SPONSORS: My wife Dr. Andrea Hambach!
OLIVIER LEBLOND (Arlington, VA) Age: 48
LONGEST DISTANCE: 262 miles MY CREW: Sarah Smith, I’ll have the best crew of all runners! RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • 48-hour American record in 2017 • 3rd at the 24-hour World Championships in 2019 • 100-mile American age-group record (45-49) in 2020 I LOOK FORWARD TO: Seeing other human beings in 2020! Visiting the pain cave. SPONSOR: USWE Sports
HARVEY LEWIS (Cincinnati, OH) Age: 44
LONGEST DISTANCE: 241 miles Bigs assist 2017; AT 2,190 miles MY CREW: Judd Poindexter my crew extraordinaire from 2017 RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • Team Gold, Oct 2019 – 24 Hour WC Albi, France w/ 160.609 miles. • 1st Place Long Haul 100 miler, January 2020, 15:55:19 • 1st Place Burning River 100, August 2020, 17:48, 11 days after setting the record of fastest time highest to lowest in the contiguous USA. I LOOK FORWARD TO: Being able to just focus on running and the camaraderie with the other runners, Laz, our crews and the dogs. I look forward to the opportunity to explore our outer limits! SPONSORS: While not a sponsor per se we currently have a film in theaters in select markets across the country – “Like Harvey, Like Son” Newton Running, RunQuest Travel, Road ID, 2XU, Swiftwick, Tailwind Nutrition, Simple Hydration, Structural Elements and Peak Performance Sports Therapy
PHIL MCCARTHY (New York City) Age: 52
LONGEST DISTANCE: 3158 miles across the USA MY CREW: Elaine Acosta RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • Former 48-hour American Record (257.34 miles) • 24-hour National Champion 2009, 2011 • Ran across USA in 2018 in 49 days, 7h, 55m I LOOK FORWARD TO: Hanging with my buddies SPONSORS: Wrightsock, Epsomit, Shades of Brooklyn
SARAH MOORE (Detroit, MI) Age: 32
LONGEST DISTANCE: 137.51 miles MY CREW: Husband and master chef, Andrew Moore and friend, Lauren Zens RACE HIGHLIGHTS: Ben & Jerry’s Cherry Garcia delivered to me by the RD after 24 hours at Ode to Laz Backyard Ultra, Kissing my husband at midnight on our Anniversary in the middle of completing the CCC UTMB 2018, Winning the Golden Ticket at Ode to Laz this year in August and getting to hug my bestie at the finish line for the first time since quarantine began I LOOK FORWARD TO: Going farther than I ever have before and running with my idols SPONSORS: I got some cool socks from XOSkin.usa that are made out of copper and tephlon, and a husband that cooks better than Gordon Ramsey himself, ensuring I go the distance.
CHRISTOPHER POWELL (Aiken, SC) Age: 36
LONGEST DISTANCE: 112 miles trail 24 hr event. MY CREW: My wife Alison will be crewing me RACE HIGHLIGHTS: Winning a golden ticket into Bigs at the Asylum: LMS event last year is a major highlight. Completinfg my first 100 2 yrs ago, and to realize that with a lot of hard work, it was attainable. I also enjoy doing races and pacing with family and friends whenever I can. I LOOK FORWARD TO: Just being there! I never thought that something like this would be possible.
GABE RAINWATER (Fresno, OH) Age: 32
LONGEST DISTANCE: 154 miles MY CREW: My wife and K-Witt RACE HIGHLIGHTS: I am most proud of running 13 consecutive Mohican 100 races and breaking the 20 hour mark. I LOOK FORWARD TO: Being a part of an elite group on a world stage SPONSOR: Vertical Runner Wooster
BRIAN TRINKLE (Cumming, GA) Age: 58
LONGEST DISTANCE: 378 miles MY CREW: Hannah Trinkle RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • Exceeding my goals and finishing strong at two un-crewed multi-day races in the same year (Tarheel and Vol State) • Grinding it out as a mid-packer in dozens of ultras and making lots of friends along the way • 32 hours at BIG’s I LOOK FORWARD TO: Just enjoying the overall experience of being surrounded by runners with talent vastly superior to mine! SPONSORS: My amazing wife, Jane Trinkle!
MICHAEL WARDIAN (Arlington, VA) Age: 44
LONGEST DISTANCE: 262.5 miles (2020) MY CREW: Phil Hargis RACE HIGHLIGHTS: • Quarantine Background Ultra Champion 2020 • 7 marathons, 7 days, 7 continents, 2:17:49 marathon PR I LOOK FORWARD TO: Doing something special with a fantastic group of athletes and representing the USA
SPONSORS: HOKA ONE ONE, T-Mobile, Nathan, GU, Sweetgreen, Injinji, Compressport, Big Spoon Roasters, Squirrel’s Nut Butter, Med Star, Inside Tracker, Polar-USA, Red Dog Coffee Roasters, Spartan Trail, T8-underwear, Ultra X, Zansors, Stoked Oats, District Taco and Uncommon Breed
Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship. Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of 781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis. Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the WOMEN’S INDIVIDUAL COMPETITION:
Fasten your shoestrings ultrarunners, the women’s individual race will be the crown jewel of this year’s championship.
Expect an intense and fierce battle for the gold between USA’s Camille Herron and Poland’s Patrycja Bereznowska. Last year at the prestigious Desert Solstice Invitational, Herron eclipsed Bereznowksa’s 161.55 mile 24-hour World Record by running 162.91 miles.
Below are the comparative individual statistics for the top 25 runners. I have also added the 100k, 50k and 12-hour bests for a few selected runners.
#
Country
Runner
KM
MILES
100 km
50 k
12 hr (km)
1
USA
Camille Herron
262.19
162.92
7:08
3:20
149.00
2
POL
Patrycja Bereznowska
259.99
161.55
8:00
140.32
3
USA
Courtney Dauwalter
256.41
159.33
133.60
4
CZE
Radka Churanova
251.5
156.28
7:22
3:28
5
GER
Nele Alder-Baerens
251.22
156.10
7:22
3:20
148.14
6
POL
Aleksandra Niwinska
251.07
156.01
139.51
7
SWE
Maria Jansson
250.65
155.75
4:07
127.15
8
USA
Katalin Nagy
250.62
155.73
8:03
137.20
9
USA
Gina Slaby
248.28
154.27
8:44
10
USA
Pam Smith
243.36
151.22
7:43
136.40
11
POL
Malgorzata Pazda-Pozorska
240.67
149.55
12
GBR
Jessica Baker
238.71
148.33
13
GER
Antje Krause
237.84
144.79
14
POL
Monika Biegasiewicz
236.40
146.89
15
USA
Megan Alvarado
236.36
146.87*
16
GER
Julia Fatton
236.18
146.76
17
FIN
Noora Honkala
234.94
145.99
18
JPN
Yuri Matsumoto
234.62
145.79
19
CRO
Antonija Orlić
232.26
144.32
20
ROU
Mariana Nenu
231.12
143.61
21
JPN
Mizuki Aotani
230.61
143.29
22
IRL
Amy Masner
228.58
142.02
23
POL
Aneta Rajda
228.38
141.91
24
GER
Simone Durry
228.07
141.72
25
POL
Milena Grabska-Grzegorczyk
227.51
141.37
*note Megan’s best 24 hour the past 3 years is actually 146.87 miles rather than the 140.56 miles performance submitted to the IAU.
Herron & Bereznowska’s running styles are like fire & water.
Camille runs like her hair is on fire and has raw leg speed that is a rarity among 24-hour runners. She is also 3-time former Olympic marathon trial runner with a personal best of 2:37. In 2015, she won both the 50 km and 100 km World Championships. In June 2017, she became only the 3rd American to win the Comrades, leading from start-to-finish. She is undoubtedly the premier Women’s ultrarunner in the World today. She also holds the 100 Mile World Record with a blistering 12:42
Bereznowska isn’t particularly fast. In fact, her Wikipedia entry only lists her 24-hour accomplishments. She is the defending World Champion having won the gold in Belfast in 2017 with 259.99 km. She also won the gold in last year’s European Championship in Romania with 243.35 km and is a Spartathlon champion setting the course record of 24:48 in 2017.
But her endurance is remarkable as evidenced by her 48-hour World Record of 401 km/249.17 miles in her multiday debut. Prior to becoming a superstar ultrarunner, she was a horseback rider, specializing in world championship long distance horseback racing.
I expect Camille to run like Sorokin and have a substantial lead at the halfway point. Bereznowska will likely employ a much more conservative even paced strategy and hope to reel Herron in during the second half of the race. At last year’s 2018 European 24-hour Championship, Pat was in 6th place for the women at the 100 km split before reeling in her competition and winning the event. Bereznowska’s patience is further evidenced in this IAU recap on how the 2018 European Championship unfolded for the women:
The first 14 hours were in hands of Antonija Orlic (CRO). She was the only one that run 100K below 9h (8:53h). Just behind her crossing 100K in 9:04h was Stine Rex (DEN). After 100 miles mark Patrycja Bereznowska (POL) closed the gap and joined both Antonija Orlic and Stine Rex. Finally, after 16 hours Stine Rex took over the lead as Orlic could not hold strong pace anymore. At this stage there was a strong performance of all Polish runners and they were already in top 15. Patrycja Bereznowska on 2nd, Monika Biegasiewicz on 4th, Małgorzata Pazda-Pozorska on 5th. After 18 hours it was Bereznowska who took over the lead. She manage to hold this lead till the end but it was all very close for remaining 6 hours. Stine Rex was just 1 lap behind and at the same time Małgorzata Pazda-Pozorska moved to third position leaving her teammate Biegasiewicz on 4th.
Behind Herron & Bereznowska, there are five runners (Dauwalter, Churanova, Alder-Barens and Niwinska) with qualifying marks that are less than 6 miles from Herron’s 162.91 World Record.
Third ranked Courtney Dauwalter is probably the most diverse road/trail/track ultrarunner today having won UTMB (24:34), Western States (17:27), Soochow 24 hour (158.97 miles), Moab 200 miler, and finishing 2nd at Big’s Backyard (67 hours). She is like Bereznowska in not having particularly raw top end speed however her endurance is off the charts. Interestingly, before she started ultrarunning she was a collegiate cross-country skiing phenom at the University of Denver.
Interestingly, both the #4 & #5 ranked runners, Churanova and Alder-Baerens, have 100 km times of 7:22, trailing only Herron’s 7:08 performance. Don’t let anyone fool you, possessing leg speed does matter in the 24 hour.
Germany’s Nele Alder-Baerensis a particularly intriguing runner. She is deaf, partially blind and has won 5 medals at the Deaflympics dating back to 2001 in the 800, 5k, 10k and marathon. She also finished 2nd at the 2016 50 km IAU World Championship in Doha and 2nd in last’s years IAU 100 km World Championship held in Croatia. She is also a 2:47 marathoner.
Czech’s Radka Churanovais a fastie too and a prolific marathon runner. Earlier this year on May 5 she ran a 2:50 marathon at the Belfast City Marathon. Three weeks later she won the Liverpool Rock & Roll marathon in 2:54. She ran 2:45 back in 2004. She has run 7 ultras and has won them all. Last year at the
100 km Lauf Pilsen, she ran 7:22 winning the race overall and defeating a couple of her male Czech compatriots, Radek Brunner & Ondrej Velicka.
Poland’s Aleksandra Niwinska cannot be overlooked as well. In 2017 she finished third at the Spartathlon and was the silver medalist at the last 24-hour World Championship. This will be her 5th 24-hour World Championship.
Don’t discount Sweden’s Maria Jansson as she was the winner of the 2016 European 24-hour Championship held on the same course at Albi and almost 10k in front of 2nd place, Bereznowska.
How about a Cinderella story? Can a runner outside the top 10 realistically contend for the “W” or the podium? How about a runner that has a qualifying mark is only the 140s?
The answer to these questions is absolutely! In 2013, John Dennis, qualified for the USA 24 Hour team with a 139.41 miles. At the World Championship in Steenbergen, he ran 162.89 miles and won the silver medal behind only Jon Olsen. Don’t be shocked if it happens again this year.
Final thought. This year’s 24 Hour Women’s race will ultimately be a death fight between Speed and Endurance.
Joe Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship. Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of 781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis. Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the WOMEN’S TEAM COMPETITION:
Why the 2019 IAU 24 Hour Championship Women’s Team Competition will go down as the greatest match-up ever in the history of IAU Ultrarunning World Championships — men or women.
It should be a high crime and misdemeanor that the 24 Hour World Championship in Albi, France, this weekend isn’t being broadcast in some form as part of the USATF/NBC television deal. I can almost guarantee there would be a bigger and more excited audience following the drama of the 24-hour race rather than the 5th Avenue Mile or the Peachtree Road Race that made the cut for the 2019 track & field television broadcast schedule.
Remember the 1996 Olympics USA men’s basketball “Dream Team” lineup consisting of Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Karl Malone, Reggie Miller, Shaq, Grant Hill, et al?
Just as talented in our sport of 24-hour ultrarunning is the 2019 USA Women’s 24-hour national team’s (USW24T) starting lineup consisting of Camille Herron, Courtney Dauwaulter, Katalin Nagy, Gina Slaby, Pam Smith, and Megan Alvarado and alternate Micah Morgan.
First, let’s compare the pre-race qualifying statistics for the top 10 Women’s teams. As shown in the chart below, the distances for the top 3 runners of the top 2 teams, USA and Poland, are simply mind blowing: 256.40 km/159.32 average km/miles per runner (“AMR”) for Team USA and 250.58 km/155 for Poland. These averages [emphasis added] would have won the individual gold medal at the World Championship in 10 out of the 12 prior WC’s. 2019 Team USA’s pre-race cumulative team distance (769 km) is almost 20 kilometers farther than their 2017 World Championship event record of 740 km. In fact, Team USA’s bench cumulative distance-(i.e. #4, #5 and #6 runners) would have also won gold in 10 prior events.
Comparative Qualifying Statistics for Top 10 Teams
Country
Team KM
Team Miles
Team Avg. MPR
Team Avg
KPR
Bench KM
Bench Miles
USA
769.21
477.97
159.32
256.40
717.85
446.05
POL
751.75
467.11
155.70
250.58
692.30
430.18
GER
725.25
450.65
150.22
241.75
660.38
410.34
JPN
691.02
429.38
143.13
230.34
221.99
137.94
GBR
678.02
421.30
140.43
226.01
429.24
266.72
CRO
669.89
416.25
138.75
223.30
376.20
233.76
FIN
667.54
414.79
137.21
222.51
560.90
348.53
FRA
662.44
411.62
136.11
220.81
633.07
393.37
HUN
657.16
408.34
136.11
219.05
0.00
0.00
IRL
650.87
404.43
134.81
216.96
205.02
127.39
Individual & Team Gold Medal Performances in Prior World Championships
Year
Gold Medal Distance (km)(Individual)
Gold Medal Distance (miles) (Individual)
Gold Medal Distance (km)(Team)
Gold Medal Distance (miles) (Team)
2003
237.05
147.30
684.86
425.55
2004
237.15
147.36
661.56
411.07
2005
242.23
150.51
709.57
440.91
2006
237.14
147.35
671.48
417.24
2007
236.85
147.17
671.33
417.14
2008
239.69
148.93
708.76
440.40
2009
243.64
151.39
684.08
425.07
2010
239.80
149.00
685.80
426.14
2012
244.23
151.76
694.62
431.62
2013
252.21
156.71
710.60
441.55
2015
244.50
151.92
720.05
447.42
2017
259.99
161.55
740.86
460.35
Does any team other than Team USA or Team Poland have a realistic chance (or odds) of winning the gold? No, nope, nada, nil, naught and not gonna happen. Odds? Zilch, zip and zero.
A team winning the gold other than the USA or Poland would, in my opinion, be the greatest upset in sports history, even bigger than these oldies but goodies:·
Miracle on Ice-Hockey USA (4), Team USSR (3) 1980 Winter Olympics
1990 Buster Douglas knocks out Mike Tyson
1950 FIFA World Cup USA (1), England (0) “Kings of Football
Horse Racing (100-1) underdog Upset beats undefeated Man o’ War
1969 Super Bowl Jets 16, Colts 7
College Football 2007 Appalachian State (34), Michigan (32)
IF it were be done, look for Japan or Germany to be spoiler but its most likely they will do battle for bronze. Japan has the advantage based on the potential of Japan’s number 3 runner, Aiko Kanematsu. She is a 7:44 100 km runner.
Why do oddsmakers feel so strongly on a Poland or USA win? Look at the disparity in distances between third ranked Germany compared to Poland and USA. Germany’s AMR is more than 5 miles per runner (i.e. 15 miles total) to Team Poland and almost 10 miles per runner (i.e. 30 miles total) to Team USA. That is a TON of miles to overcome. On top of that, the USA and Poland have the deepest benches of all the teams, with three runners ready, willing, and able to replace a faltering scoring member.
In fact, the USA and Poland women’s team distance totals ranks 7th and 10th among the men’s teams. Even more impressive is that Team USA’s average of 159.32 miles per runner is less than a mile difference than the average distance of the 2nd– 6th ranked men’s teams (Spain, France, United States & Poland). I’m really not sure that there needs to be separate divisions based on sex. If I were a betting man, I would without hesitation take the USA’s women’s team, straight up, against any of the men’s World Championship teams, except possibly Japan.
Team USA v. Team Poland – A look back to 2017
USA and Poland brought strong teams into Belfast for the 2018 World Championship. The USA placed three runners in the top five and won the women’s team title with a combined distance of 740.856km (a record distance for World Championship). Despite having the top two individual finishers, Poland missed out on the team title by the narrow margin of 622 meters, racking up a combined distance of 740.234km. Some way behind, Germany took the team bronze medals with 689.622km. The USA women commanded a massive lead a midway through the race (we will fact check – but ~50 miles), only to see if fade. Had the race been a 24 hour and 5 minute race, Poland may have secured the top podium position. You could not ask for a better backdrop going to this weekend’s race…..
Team USA v. Team Poland
Let’s drill down and look at the head-to-head statistics of these two powerhouse teams.
USA (4 returning runners from 2017 WC)
Runner
Kilometers
Miles
Camille Herron
262.186
162.91
Courtney Dauwalter
256.405
159.32
Katalin Nagy
250.622
155.73
Gina Slaby
248.276
154.27
Pam Smith
243.355
151.21
Megan Alvarado
236.357
146.87
Poland (5 returning runners from 2017 WC)
Runner
Kilometers
Miles
Patrycja Bereznowska
259.991
161.55
Aleksandra Niwinska
251.078
156.01
Malgorzata Pazda-Pozorska
240.679
149.55
Monika Biegasiewicz
236.401
146.89
Aneta Rajda
228.388
141.91
Milena Grabska-Grzegorczyk
227.511
141.37
Head to Head to Head Matchup
#1- Herron (USA) v. Bereznowska (Poland) – draw 162.91 v. 161.55 (miles). Draw (1.36 miles)
#2-Dauwalter (USA) v. Niwinska (Poland) 159.32 v. 156.01. Advantage Team USA (3.31 miles)
#3 Nagy (USA) v. Pazda-Pozorska (Poland) 155.73 v. 149.55 Advantage Team USA (6.18 miles)
#4 Slaby (USA) v. Biegasiewicz (Poland) 154.27 v. 146.89 Advantage Team USA (7.38 miles)
#5 Smith (USA) v. Rajda (Poland) 151.21 v. 141.91 Advantage Team USA (9.3 miles)
#6 Alvarado (USA) v. Grabska-Grzegorczyk (Poland) 146.87 v. 141.37 Advantage Team USA (5.5 miles)
Conclusion: Remember that only the top 3 runners for each team are scored. Herron, the current World Record Holder, is evenly matched with Berenoska, the former WR Holder. Team USA has a slight advantage in the #2 spot with Dauwalter holding a 3.31-mile advantage against Niwinska. The deciding factor between the two teams will likely come down to the performance of the final scoring member. I like the US chances with its #3 and #4 runners having qualifying performances (Nagy 155.73 and Slaby 154.27) that are more than 5 files farther than the qualifying performance of Poland’s #3 runner, Pazda-Pozorska (149.55 miles).
Individual Glory or Team?
The contest may turn out to be one of risk vs. reward depending on a particular runner’s goal. Each runner needs to decide if they are running for their own personal glory or for the team. Oftentimes the pacing strategy may be different depending on the chosen goal.
A runner who is pacing for a personal best performance is likely to be at higher risk for a “crash & burn”, since by definition, they will be trying to go further than ever before. Team runners may want to consider pacing for a targeted distance that is actually a few miles less than their prior best performance, if it is in the best interest of their team. A poor performance from any one of a team’s scoring members may dramatically alter the team outcome.
Think best ball format in golf where 4 team golfers choose the best shot of the group to play. Oftentimes, in this format, the first couple of players will play it safe and simply try to hit the ball down the middle of the course to ensure a ball is in play and not out of bounds. They may even hit an iron rather than a wood to ensure accuracy. Once a “safe” shot is made, the remaining players have the luxury of taking a chance.
A similar team strategy can also be employed in a 24-hour championship, particularly since a “Crash & Burn” is tantamount to an out-of-bounds golf shot. Some teams may decide to have their runners target a particular distance (e.g 153.45 miles) that is likely to win the gold as a team, and wait until the last 4 hours for any team member to run a faster pace.
How about pacing among teammates? Unlike the USATF rules, pacing among same sex teammates is permitted in most circumstances.
The IAAF/IAU rules explicitly allow teams to pace together in World Championships (Major IAU Competition), as long as it is among the same sex (e.g. no man can run with any woman as they are taking part in separate events; open race athletes are also in a separate event and cannot pace MIAUC participants; and any runner who has retired during the event must take no further part at all.)
I remember when I ran the World Championship in 2012 (Katowice) and 2013 (Steenbergen). Team Japan packed its runners from the start in a herd. It brought back my days running high school and college cross country, where many of the top teams “packed” their runners, oftentimes without any of their runners making the podium. It was often team first and individual glory second.
This will be a race for the ages. We are looking forward to covering the race starting Saturday am, October 26th at 10:00 am (CEST). It is shaping up to be a great battle of wills and teamwork.
e Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship. Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of 781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 2012 (Katowice) bronze medal team with Mike Morton and Harvey Lewis. Joe holds the 6-Day American Record with 606 and recently completed 532 miles at 6 Days at the Dome, a race he also created and directed. He had an earlier than expected exit from Big Dog’s Backyard Ultra last weekend – which gives him time to complete the women’s preview which we will also share! Below is Joe’s take on what to expect in the MEN’S INDIVIDUAL COMPETITION:
aggressive, in your face, running style is designed to either win the gold brilliantly or implode. He is not afraid to fail which makes him especially dangerous and unpredictable. Oh, did I mention he has 6:50 100km leg speed? At the 2016 European 24-hour World Championship (coincidentally which was held on the same course in Albi), Sorokin rocketed to an 18 km lead over his before giving it all back over the last three hours, on his way to a 6th place finish (251.61 km). To put things in perspective, his 12-hour split was 153.70 km/95.50 miles or 191 mile 24-hour pace.
Sorokin will be tested though by 28–year-old phenom Ivan “I’m not Terrible” Penalba Lopez of Spain, an intriguing storyline in his own right, and legitimate threat to win the gold in Albi. Lopez can match Sorokin in raw leg speed as evidenced by his 6:58 100k earlier this year. He also has the second and third best 12-hour marks in the World this year-both 155-kilometer efforts, behind only Zach Bitter’s 168 km World Record achieved at the Six Days in the Dome-the Redux.
25 countries and ~300 ultra athletes from around the world will be competing this weekend. Only one country and one runner will be left standing at the end. Here is the roster for Team USA (alphabetically listed): *Note: Jordan Webster McKelley earned a spot on TEAM USA, but had to decline due to injury. He will be replaced by Brian Trinkle.
e Fejes returns again to offer up his preview on the 2019 IAU World Championship. Men’s race. Joe was on the 2013 USA Team that won gold with a third all-time distance of 781km. He was a scoring member with 248.14km. He was also part of the 
Outlaw Runs 